🔗 Share this article

A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."

Request for Broader Discussion

Westminster should participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."